Vanderbilt just closed the books on the program’s most successful recruiting class of all time, bringing 12 four-star players to Nashville and strengthening James Franklin’s case as the best salesman the Commodore football team has ever had. ESPN has the ‘Dores ranked 22nd in the country for their haul in 2013 – a huge turnaround from the Bobby Johnson days when this team struggled to crack the top 60. Touted athletes like Jordan Cunningham, Johnathon McCrary, and Jay Woods have raised the bar for Franklin’s recruiting efforts from here on out.
But how much can we expect from these players?
Photo courtesy of Matthew Tosh via Flickr.
Vanderbilt just rolled through a nine-win season for the first time in nearly 100 years. Those wins weren’t built from Franklin’s improved recruiting, but rather from the two and three-star players that Bobby Johnson and Robbie Caldwell had brought in before him. For example, all-time Vanderbilt rushing leader Zac Stacy was a three-star player. All-SEC wideout Jordan Matthews wasn’t even ranked in the top 150 of all receiving recruits. And kicker Carey Spear was once Vandy’s second-best recruit, according to ESPN’s ranks.
With that in mind, I decided to roll back through ESPN’s rankings from 2006 to 2010 to see how much of an impact Vandy’s top-rated recruits had in Nashville. Some had immensely successful careers like Chris Marve. Others never really made an impact, like Micah Powell. And one, Jonathan Massey, never even played a snap for the Commodores. I then sorted through the rest of the team’s recruits for a given year and ranked the top three according to how their football careers played out at Dudley Field.
The results showed that the majority of the players who emerged as key members of Vanderbilt’s football revival came from the lower end of ESPN’s recruit rankings. Let’s examine the five year span from ’06 to ’10 and look at who the Commodores picked up, who their top recruits were, and who really ended up contributing the most on the gridiron in black and gold.
2006:
1. Jonathan Massey (Ranked #4 at TE)
2. Jared Funk (#52 QB)
3. Greg Billinger (#46 OT)
Massey was a huge recruiting victory for the ‘Dores, but he never played a snap for Vanderbilt, ending up in junior college and then at Southern Miss. Funk didn’t see much more game time than Massey, playing backup to Chris Nickson, Mackenzi Adams, and Larry Smith over a five-year career. Billinger was moved to defensive end and found playing time immediately for Bobby Johnson, eventually developing into a two-year starter at tackle.
The Results:
1. D.J. Moore (#141 WR)
2. Myron Lewis (#121 WR)
3. Patrick Benoist (#50 ILB)
Vanderbilt got big time production on the defensive side of the ball thanks to the top three players of the class of 2006. Moore edges out Lewis for top honors thanks to his versatility and ability to take snaps on offense, but Lewis’s penchant for coming up with big plays at cornerback was huge for this team.
Other notables: Brett Upson (UR K), Gaston Miller (#107 RB), Austin Monahan (UR TE)
2007:
1. Larry Smith (#28 QB)
2. Chris Marve (#16 ILB)
3. Ryan van Rensburg (#6 FB)
All three of Vandy’s top recruits made an impact for this team, with Smith and Marve each being key factors behind Commodore bowl invites in 2008 and 2011. Van Rensburg had a limited impact for the ‘Dores, but was a solid fullback for a pair of seasons before his role in the offense petered out and he left the team after his redshirt junior season.
The Results:
1. Chris Marve
2. John Stokes (#64 OLB)
3 (tie). Tim Fugger (UR TE)
3 (tie). Larry Smith
Vandy’s D got an even bigger boost in ’07, bringing in a player who may have been the best linebacker in modern Commodore history when they signed Marve out of Memphis. He would be joined by John Stokes to create the smartest linebacking tandem in SEC history – Marve went on to law school while Stokes opted to pursue a medical career. Both were extremely valuable members of the Commodore defense. Same goes with Fugger, who developed into a beast at defensive end in his senior year and earned a seventh-round draft selection by the Indianapolis Colts. Smith was occasionally frustrating at quarterback, but he was a distinguished leader and team player who led this squad to a Music City Bowl title.
Other notables: Kyle Fischer (#67 OT), Jamie Graham (#59 CB), Brandon Barden (#64 TE), T.J. Greenstone (#97 DT), Udom Umoh (UR WR)
2008:
1. DeAndre Jones (#35 OLB)
2. Micah Powell (#37 ATH)
3. Ryan Seymour (#70 DE)
Powell never truly settled into a role at Vanderbilt, bouncing around the defense before becoming the team’s third-string tailback his senior season. He got to win a Liberty Bowl with the ‘Dores, but his impact was limited. We’ll get to Jones and Seymour below.
The Results:
1. Casey Hayward (UR S)
2. Ryan Seymour
3. Sean Richardson (#91 S)
Just missing the list were Archibald Barnes (UR ATH), Josh Jelesky (UR DE), and Rob Lohr (UR DE). Vanderbilt also got contributions from recruits like Colt Nichter, Al Owens, and others. Jones was a nice backup linebacker, but he was passed on the depth chart by Tristan Strong (#77 OLB) and Barnes, who both emerged late in their careers as contributors (sadly, Strong’s career was cut short by knee injuries just as he was making a big impact for the ‘Dores).
The gems of this class were clearly Seymour, Hayward, and Richardson. Hayward became an All-SEC performer at cornerback and now stars for the Green Bay Packers, while Richardson joined him to create a beastly matchup for opponents’ passing games. Seymour was the cornerstone of an offensive line that was rebuilt several times around him.
Other notables: Barnes, Jelesky, Lohr, Nichter, Owens, Strong, John Cole (#131 WR), Ryan Fowler (UR K), Johnell Thomas (UR DE)
2009:
1. Eric Samuels (#42 RB)
2. Wesley Johnson (#31 OG)
3. Mylon Brown (#47 OT)
Samuels was converted to the defensive side of the ball after arriving in Nashville was was a key member of the safety rotation for the ‘Dores. Johnson is an All-SEC lineman who teamed up with Seymour to give Vandy some much needed stability and leadership on the O-Line. Brown developed into a starter (but mostly by circumstance) as a redshirt sophomore but was dismissed from the team in March of 2012.
The Results:
1. Zac Stacy (#98 RB)
2. Wesley Johnson
3. Trey Wilson (#57 CB)
Stacy is probably Vanderbilt’s most effective player of the past five years, resurrecting a moribund Commodore ground game and adding a whole new dimension to James Franklin’s offense. Johnson played a big role in that, as the ill-tempered lineman was instrumental in sealing blocks and opening holes for Stacy to run through on a weekly basis. Composing a third choice behind Stacy and Johnson was difficult, as Warren Norman, Walker May, Wesley Tate, Javon Marshall, and the immortal Charlie Goro all came to Nashville in 2009. However, Wilson’s emergence as an All-SEC corner with the speed and elusiveness to return interceptions for touchdowns gave him the slight edge.
Other notables: Norman (#119 RB), May (#93 OLB), Tate (#165 RB), Marshall (#155 S)
2010:
1. Kenny Ladler (#43 S)
2. Carey Spear (#6 K)
3. Jared Morse (#53 DT)
All three players have been contributors for the Commodores since arriving at Dudley Field in 2010. Ladler has become one of Vanderbilt’s fiercest defenders in the backfield and Carey Spear overcame a tough 2011 to become an All-SEC caliber kicker (and lunatic special teams tackler) in 2013. Morse has been a solid run stopper who has the strength to make tackles behind the line of scrimmage for the ‘Dores.
The Results:
1. Jordan Matthews (#153 WR)
2. Chris Boyd (#165 WR)
3. Chase Garnham (UR OLB)
HM: Jordan Rodgers (Unranked as a junior college QB)
Ladler, Spear, and Morse all have had nice careers in black and gold, but they’ve been blown out of the water by their less-heralded counterparts. Matthews and Boyd have teamed up to become one of the best receiving tandems in the NCAA, and Rodgers was the guy slinging them passes for the last year and a half. Chase Garnham, a freak athlete in high school, has adjusted well to the various roles the team has given him at linebacker and is now one of Vanderbilt’s best defenders. Behind these four, you’ve also got players like Karl Butler (#74 CB), Jonathan Krause (#112 WR), Andre Hal (#65 CB), Kyle Woestmann (#70 DT), Andrew Bridges (#100 DE), and Vince Taylor (#54 DT). These players – part of a hybrid class lured to Nashville by Bobby Johnson and Robby Caldwell – made up the bulk of a Commodore team that went to back-to-back bowls in 2011 and 2012.
Other notables: Butler, Hal, Woestmann, Bridges, Taylor, Krause, Chase White (#156 OT), Steven Clarke (UR CB)
So here’s the quick recap of this not-at-all-scientific analysis. Of the 15 players that ESPN considered top 3 in their class over the past five years, only four remained in the top three through their college careers (or in the case of 2009 and 2010 players, the bulk of their careers). Vanderbilt football has been tremendously successful in grooming strong SEC contributors amongst the lot of players who have been overlooked coming out of high school. You only need to review the resumes of Casey Hayward, Jordan Matthews, and Zac Stacy to understand that.
As a result, don’t be too surprised if the players that carry the Commodores to SEC success in 2015 and 2016 aren’t four-star guys like Jordan Cunningham or Johnathon McCrary. Those players have huge expectations on their shoulders after standout high school careers, but they could be usurped by players like Jonathan Wynn and Delando Crooks. In SEC football, finding the right fit can be a better indicator of success than talent alone.
There are a few caveats here, though. First, none of these recruiting classes came under James Franklin, who has shown a penchant for bringing higher level recruits to Nashville. In theory, higher caliber players undergo more scouting and should have a smaller variance in terms of performance. As a result, Vandy’s 2012 and 2013 classes may see more consistency when the top players are compared before and after their college careers.
Additionally, ESPN’s recruiting services differ from the other three major websites – Rivals, 247, and Scout. All four have different approaches to grading players and have different rankings and ratings for each athlete. As a result, these rankings – and really, all rankings – are both subjective and volatile. The only real way to gauge a recruiting class comes five years after the fact, when NCAA resumes have been filled out.
In that regard, Bobby Johnson and Robbie Caldwell deserve much more credit than they’ve received for the classes of 2009 and 2010.
Disagree with the analysis of Vandy’s top players? Think Jordan Rodgers deserves more credit? Have something to say about Greg Billinger? Be sure to let us know in the comments below.
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